2048 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2048, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Globally, the RNI is expected to fall below 0.7% per year, a sharp decrease from late 20th-century highs. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many sub-Saharan countries like Niger and Nigeria still experiencing rates above 2%, driven by youthful populations and relatively high fertility. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will be much lower, with countries such as India and Indonesia seeing further declines as fertility drops and populations age. Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero; countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia will face natural population decrease due to persistently low birth rates and aging populations. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching replacement-level fertility. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania will see modest RNIs, with the United States and Australia relying more on immigration than natural increase for population growth. These contrasts highlight the uneven pace of demographic change, with some countries still experiencing population booms while others face stagnation or decline.

Data from US Census International Database