2047 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2047, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa maintaining rates above 2% per year, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have dropped significantly, with populous nations like China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing near-zero or even negative natural increase due to aging populations and low fertility rates, while South Asian countries such as India and Pakistan will still contribute modestly positive RNIs. Europe’s RNI will remain negative overall, as deaths outpace births across most countries, especially in Eastern and Southern Europe. The Americas will present a mixed picture: Latin American nations will see their RNIs nearing zero, while the United States and Canada will rely increasingly on immigration to sustain population growth as their natural increase rates stagnate or turn negative. Oceania, led by Australia and New Zealand, will have low but positive RNIs, with some Pacific Island nations maintaining higher rates. Thus, by 2047, the world’s population growth from natural increase will be concentrated in a shrinking group of mainly African countries, while much of the rest of the world faces demographic stagnation or decline.

Data from US Census International Database