2046 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2046, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with many Sub-Saharan countries still experiencing youthful populations and high fertility rates, though even here, gradual declines in RNI are anticipated as health and education improve. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will likely be much lower, with East Asian countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low fertility and aging populations, while South Asian nations like India and Pakistan will see moderate but declining rates. Europe’s RNI is projected to remain negative, as most countries face sustained low birth rates and aging demographics, leading to natural population decrease. Latin America and the Caribbean will likely see their RNI approach zero, with some countries like Brazil and Mexico transitioning to very low or even negative rates, mirroring trends in North America where the United States and Canada will rely increasingly on migration to offset natural decrease. This contrast highlights a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a handful of African and South Asian countries, while much of the rest of the world faces stagnation or decline in natural population growth.

Data from US Census International Database