2045 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2045, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—is expected to continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. According to United Nations projections, the global RNI will likely fall below 0.5% per year, a significant decrease from the early 21st century. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries maintaining rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, will experience negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low birth rates and aging populations, leading to natural population decline. Latin America and Southeast Asia will see moderate RNI, with countries like Brazil and Indonesia stabilizing as fertility rates approach replacement level. Meanwhile, South Asia—particularly India and Pakistan—will continue to contribute significantly to global population growth, though their RNIs will also be trending downward. These contrasts highlight the demographic divergence between regions with youthful, growing populations and those facing population aging and decline.

Data from US Census International Database