By the year 2045, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, excluding migration—is expected to continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. According to United Nations projections, the global RNI will likely fall below 0.5% per year, a significant decrease from the early 21st century. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries maintaining rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, will experience negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low birth rates and aging populations, leading to natural population decline. Latin America and Southeast Asia will see moderate RNI, with countries like Brazil and Indonesia stabilizing as fertility rates approach replacement level. Meanwhile, South Asia—particularly India and Pakistan—will continue to contribute significantly to global population growth, though their RNIs will also be trending downward. These contrasts highlight the demographic divergence between regions with youthful, growing populations and those facing population aging and decline.
Rank | Country | Rate of Natural Increase | Population |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Niger | 3.033 | 53,741,290 |
2 | Benin | 2.835 | 27,894,671 |
3 | Angola | 2.777 | 71,766,569 |
4 | Congo Kinshasa | 2.621 | 212,193,547 |
5 | Guinea-Bissau | 2.568 | 3,593,345 |
6 | Guinea | 2.499 | 24,329,616 |
7 | Uganda | 2.442 | 87,001,576 |
8 | Mozambique | 2.433 | 56,530,226 |
9 | Mali | 2.354 | 37,534,404 |
10 | Liberia | 2.353 | 9,501,362 |
11 | Chad | 2.283 | 33,570,444 |
12 | Burundi | 2.18 | 23,149,039 |
13 | Cameroon | 2.174 | 51,623,028 |
14 | Tanzania | 2.11 | 112,240,774 |
15 | Nigeria | 2.088 | 387,782,040 |
16 | Zambia | 2.067 | 34,852,418 |
17 | Congo Brazzaville | 2.013 | 9,250,619 |
18 | Togo | 1.994 | 14,015,458 |
19 | South Sudan | 1.966 | 21,466,512 |
20 | Zimbabwe | 1.946 | 22,963,762 |
21 | Sudan | 1.842 | 81,387,831 |
22 | Somalia | 1.822 | 20,759,265 |
23 | Ethiopia | 1.65 | 181,277,414 |
24 | Ghana | 1.628 | 51,317,502 |
25 | Senegal | 1.593 | 28,464,075 |
26 | Central African Republic | 1.547 | 7,808,806 |
27 | Burkina Faso | 1.54 | 34,402,362 |
28.5 | Afghanistan | 1.51 | 58,812,822 |
28.5 | Gaza Strip | 1.51 | 2,893,632 |
30 | Papua New Guinea | 1.492 | 14,850,941 |
31 | Gabon | 1.447 | 3,765,634 |
32 | Timor-Leste | 1.443 | 2,071,285 |
33 | Malawi | 1.421 | 31,661,017 |
34 | Kenya | 1.387 | 83,970,900 |
35 | Madagascar | 1.382 | 42,471,930 |
36 | Côte d'Ivoire | 1.38 | 43,795,589 |
37 | Sierra Leone | 1.377 | 13,398,620 |
38 | Mauritania | 1.372 | 6,072,947 |
39 | Eritrea | 1.337 | 8,436,844 |
40 | The Gambia | 1.324 | 3,592,873 |
41 | Iraq | 1.304 | 59,339,806 |
42 | Libya | 1.285 | 9,311,267 |
43 | Equatorial Guinea | 1.284 | 2,863,239 |
44 | West Bank | 1.275 | 4,050,436 |
45 | Namibia | 1.264 | 3,910,077 |
46 | Pakistan | 1.263 | 346,445,113 |
47 | Rwanda | 1.26 | 18,177,389 |
48 | Jordan | 1.204 | 14,955,988 |
49 | Sao Tome and Principe | 1.198 | 290,654 |
50 | Kuwait | 1.175 | 3,774,252 |
51 | Syria | 1.166 | 31,694,029 |
52 | Belize | 1.138 | 563,238 |
53 | Yemen | 1.132 | 43,361,928 |
54 | Oman | 1.131 | 5,152,426 |
55 | Solomon Islands | 1.125 | 960,552 |
56 | Egypt | 1.106 | 143,315,586 |
57 | Vanuatu | 1.065 | 413,574 |
58 | Guatemala | 1.047 | 23,412,438 |
59 | Marshall Islands | 0.981 | 100,480 |
60 | Philippines | 0.978 | 151,645,176 |
61 | Comoros | 0.974 | 1,130,810 |
62 | Tuvalu | 0.962 | 13,090 |
63 | Eswatini | 0.916 | 1,281,325 |
64 | Israel | 0.896 | 11,954,993 |
65 | Lesotho | 0.894 | 2,580,445 |
66 | Federated States of Micronesia | 0.879 | 80,246 |
67 | Djibouti | 0.871 | 1,332,840 |
68 | Tajikistan | 0.869 | 11,657,036 |
69 | United Arab Emirates | 0.843 | 11,955,935 |
70 | Haiti | 0.835 | 14,070,475 |
71 | Kyrgyzstan | 0.829 | 6,978,747 |
72 | Nauru | 0.812 | 10,963 |
73 | Algeria | 0.78 | 54,338,351 |
74 | Qatar | 0.764 | 2,570,504 |
75 | Kiribati | 0.748 | 136,164 |
76 | Panama | 0.726 | 5,593,457 |
77 | Samoa | 0.721 | 239,456 |
78 | Cambodia | 0.713 | 19,790,688 |
79 | Laos | 0.7 | 9,634,704 |
80 | Brunei | 0.695 | 620,628 |
81 | Honduras | 0.684 | 11,638,031 |
82 | Guam | 0.681 | 163,733 |
83 | Bahrain | 0.662 | 1,805,489 |
84 | Tonga | 0.653 | 94,047 |
85 | Saudi Arabia | 0.65 | 46,514,510 |
86 | Saint Martin | 0.649 | 34,866 |
87 | Botswana | 0.623 | 3,075,706 |
88 | Dominican Republic | 0.622 | 12,394,081 |
89 | Peru | 0.616 | 37,265,524 |
90 | Cabo Verde | 0.595 | 727,635 |
91 | Bangladesh | 0.582 | 191,663,230 |
92 | Bolivia | 0.548 | 14,312,197 |
93 | Turkmenistan | 0.539 | 6,511,718 |
94 | Morocco | 0.536 | 42,409,327 |
95 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0.531 | 81,634 |
96 | Ecuador | 0.519 | 20,858,769 |
97 | Nepal | 0.517 | 34,703,481 |
98 | Argentina | 0.49 | 53,731,198 |
99 | Venezuela | 0.483 | 35,917,969 |
100 | Bhutan | 0.469 | 1,026,298 |
101 | Maldives | 0.467 | 440,417 |
102 | Paraguay | 0.445 | 8,777,991 |
103 | Mexico | 0.423 | 150,047,398 |
104 | South Africa | 0.421 | 67,089,133 |
105 | Mongolia | 0.415 | 3,649,504 |
106 | Guyana | 0.411 | 843,985 |
107 | Nicaragua | 0.401 | 7,222,622 |
108 | Fiji | 0.395 | 1,010,336 |
109 | Kazakhstan | 0.39 | 21,966,766 |
110 | Malaysia | 0.389 | 40,325,234 |
111 | El Salvador | 0.387 | 6,578,045 |
112 | Jamaica | 0.385 | 2,929,345 |
113 | Iran | 0.379 | 99,549,531 |
114 | India | 0.375 | 1,597,727,086 |
115 | Indonesia | 0.364 | 314,615,052 |
116 | Antigua and Barbuda | 0.363 | 121,744 |
117 | New Caledonia | 0.35 | 365,748 |
118 | Anguilla | 0.348 | 26,132 |
119 | Uzbekistan | 0.337 | 35,081,953 |
120 | Burma | 0.336 | 64,341,799 |
121 | Suriname | 0.334 | 765,576 |
122 | Vietnam | 0.329 | 119,568,023 |
123 | Costa Rica | 0.325 | 6,085,892 |
124 | Kosovo | 0.318 | 2,214,324 |
125 | The Bahamas | 0.299 | 403,808 |
126 | Colombia | 0.294 | 51,807,055 |
127 | Ireland | 0.293 | 6,303,876 |
128 | Tunisia | 0.284 | 12,837,035 |
129 | Sri Lanka | 0.275 | 25,437,022 |
130 | Australia | 0.274 | 32,236,019 |
131 | Faroe Islands | 0.256 | 57,621 |
132 | Iceland | 0.255 | 410,488 |
133 | British Virgin Islands | 0.252 | 53,583 |
134 | Luxembourg | 0.239 | 847,137 |
135 | Turkey | 0.221 | 90,615,273 |
136 | American Samoa | 0.195 | 33,300 |
137 | New Zealand | 0.165 | 5,879,696 |
138 | French Polynesia | 0.147 | 328,816 |
139 | Azerbaijan | 0.144 | 11,314,678 |
140 | Cayman Islands | 0.142 | 88,819 |
141 | Brazil | 0.136 | 237,571,175 |
142 | Northern Mariana Islands | 0.13 | 46,984 |
143 | Gibraltar | 0.113 | 29,258 |
144 | United States | 0.109 | 381,390,297 |
145 | Lebanon | 0.109 | 5,760,316 |
146 | Norway | 0.108 | 6,380,739 |
147 | Chile | 0.089 | 20,055,057 |
148 | Sweden | 0.074 | 11,552,812 |
149 | Uruguay | 0.073 | 3,551,551 |
150 | Switzerland | 0.049 | 9,610,596 |
151 | Jersey | 0.024 | 109,506 |
152 | North Korea | 0.018 | 27,220,540 |
153 | United Kingdom | 0.016 | 73,420,201 |
154 | Grenada | 0.009 | 116,313 |
155 | Singapore | -0.003 | 6,853,565 |
156.5 | Wallis and Futuna | -0.006 | 16,031 |
156.5 | Belgium | -0.006 | 12,938,620 |
158.5 | Aruba | -0.016 | 148,961 |
158.5 | Curaçao | -0.016 | 154,512 |
160 | Greenland | -0.022 | 54,494 |
161 | Denmark | -0.062 | 6,356,609 |
162 | France | -0.082 | 71,426,718 |
163 | Canada | -0.096 | 43,230,196 |
164 | Netherlands | -0.1 | 18,341,061 |
165 | Cyprus | -0.122 | 1,436,653 |
166 | Dominica | -0.13 | 69,142 |
167 | Albania | -0.139 | 2,967,267 |
168 | Georgia | -0.143 | 4,856,274 |
169 | Seychelles | -0.144 | 102,151 |
170 | Sint Maarten | -0.146 | 53,463 |
171 | Liechtenstein | -0.162 | 44,382 |
172 | Macau | -0.166 | 695,593 |
173 | Guernsey | -0.17 | 68,920 |
174 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | -0.187 | 96,710 |
175 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | -0.189 | 57,937 |
176 | Austria | -0.222 | 9,335,849 |
177 | Trinidad and Tobago | -0.223 | 1,383,808 |
178 | Finland | -0.228 | 5,640,640 |
179 | Barbados | -0.244 | 303,116 |
180 | San Marino | -0.249 | 36,966 |
181 | Isle of Man | -0.255 | 96,026 |
182 | North Macedonia | -0.259 | 2,099,476 |
183 | Palau | -0.278 | 22,662 |
184 | Montserrat | -0.283 | 5,645 |
185 | Spain | -0.29 | 47,776,006 |
186.5 | Bermuda | -0.303 | 72,889 |
186.5 | Malta | -0.303 | 488,028 |
188 | Czechia | -0.316 | 10,520,771 |
189 | Cuba | -0.319 | 10,338,941 |
190 | China | -0.321 | 1,388,147,197 |
191 | Montenegro | -0.34 | 519,245 |
192 | Italy | -0.345 | 61,102,823 |
193 | Thailand | -0.351 | 68,308,383 |
194 | Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha | -0.374 | 7,734 |
195 | U.S. Virgin Islands | -0.428 | 86,971 |
196.5 | Slovenia | -0.431 | 2,014,803 |
196.5 | Germany | -0.431 | 80,803,263 |
198 | Slovakia | -0.438 | 5,085,052 |
199 | Mauritius | -0.45 | 1,263,605 |
200 | Portugal | -0.464 | 9,883,354 |
201 | Cook Islands | -0.465 | 5,593 |
202 | Armenia | -0.469 | 2,629,539 |
203 | Russia | -0.474 | 133,880,610 |
204 | Saint Barthelemy | -0.484 | 6,818 |
205 | Belarus | -0.497 | 8,653,917 |
206 | Poland | -0.518 | 34,482,878 |
207 | Greece | -0.519 | 9,713,202 |
208 | Romania | -0.527 | 15,991,781 |
209 | Ukraine | -0.528 | 38,538,818 |
210 | Hungary | -0.538 | 8,865,907 |
211 | Hong Kong | -0.578 | 7,049,539 |
212 | Andorra | -0.587 | 80,790 |
213 | Moldova | -0.594 | 2,450,198 |
214 | Croatia | -0.597 | 3,730,291 |
215 | Bulgaria | -0.608 | 5,933,661 |
216 | Saint Lucia | -0.611 | 170,100 |
217 | Serbia | -0.614 | 5,870,991 |
218 | South Korea | -0.618 | 51,396,446 |
219 | Taiwan | -0.634 | 22,725,928 |
220 | Estonia | -0.642 | 1,012,359 |
221 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | -0.67 | 3,429,208 |
222 | Japan | -0.703 | 109,615,226 |
223 | Puerto Rico | -0.709 | 2,303,946 |
224 | Latvia | -0.791 | 1,419,172 |
225 | Lithuania | -0.799 | 2,140,115 |
226 | Saint Pierre and Miquelon | -1.119 | 3,930 |
227 | Monaco | -1.156 | 33,393 |
Data from US Census International Database