2044 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2044, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will continue its decades-long decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, particularly in sub-Saharan countries like Niger and Nigeria, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries such as Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, will experience negative or near-zero RNI due to aging populations and low fertility rates, leading to natural population decline without immigration. South Asia, led by India, will see a moderate RNI, lower than Africa but still positive, while Latin America’s RNI will continue to fall as fertility rates approach replacement level. North America and Oceania will have low but positive RNI, with immigration playing a larger role in population growth than natural increase. These contrasts highlight the demographic divide: some countries and regions face rapid population growth and youthful societies, while others grapple with shrinking, aging populations and the challenges that come with them.

Data from US Census International Database