2043 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2043, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. The world’s RNI is projected to be under 0.7% per year, down from around 1.0% in 2023, as fertility rates fall and populations age, particularly in Europe, East Asia, and North America, where many countries will experience negative or near-zero RNI. In contrast, Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with sub-Saharan Africa’s rate expected to remain above 2%, driving much of the world’s population growth. South Asia and parts of the Middle East will see moderate RNI, while Latin America’s rate will continue to decrease, approaching replacement level. Countries like Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will have some of the highest RNIs globally, whereas Japan, Italy, and Russia will likely have negative rates, facing population decline. This contrast highlights a world increasingly divided between regions with youthful, growing populations and those grappling with aging and shrinking societies.

Data from US Census International Database