2042 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2042, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries still experiencing rates above 2% per year, driven by high fertility and improving child survival. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue to fall, with populous nations like India and China approaching or even dipping below replacement-level fertility, resulting in much lower RNI figures—often below 1%. Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as most countries face aging populations and persistently low birth rates, leading to natural population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will see further declines in RNI, with most countries hovering around or below 0.5%. In North America, the United States and Canada will have very low or near-zero RNI, relying increasingly on migration for population growth. Countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo will contrast sharply with nations like Japan, Italy, or Russia, which will see negative RNI, highlighting the growing demographic divergence between youthful and aging populations across the globe.

Data from US Census International Database