2041 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2041, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—will continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo experiencing annual rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia face persistent low birth rates and aging populations, leading to natural population decrease. Asia’s RNI will be mixed: South Asian countries like Pakistan and India will see moderate but declining rates, while East Asian nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea will have negative RNIs due to very low fertility rates. Latin America’s RNI will also decline, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching replacement-level fertility, while North America (the United States and Canada) will hover near zero, relying more on immigration for population growth. Oceania, led by high-fertility Pacific Island nations, will exhibit moderate positive RNIs, while Australia and New Zealand will have low or negative rates. Thus, by 2041, the world’s population growth will be increasingly concentrated in a handful of African and some South Asian countries, while most developed nations will see little or no natural increase.

Data from US Census International Database