2040 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2040, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Globally, the RNI is expected to be around 0.6% per year, down from 1.0% in 2020. Africa will have the highest RNI, with many countries such as Niger, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo maintaining rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia experience more deaths than births due to aging populations and low fertility rates. Asia’s RNI will be mixed: South Asian countries like Pakistan and India will see moderate positive rates, while East Asian countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea will face stagnant or negative RNI due to very low fertility. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching near-zero growth. North America and Oceania will have low but positive RNI, with the United States and Australia relying increasingly on migration to offset natural decrease. Thus, by 2040, population growth from natural increase will be highly concentrated in a few regions, especially Sub-Saharan Africa, while much of the world will see slowing or even negative natural growth.

Data from US Census International Database