2039 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2039, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between the crude birth rate and crude death rate, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with many Sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria still experiencing annual rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will be more varied: South and Southeast Asian nations like India and the Philippines may see moderate increases, while East Asian countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea are likely to have near-zero or even negative RNI due to aging populations and low birth rates. Europe’s RNI will remain negative or close to zero, with countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia facing population decline absent significant immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will see their RNI fall closer to replacement level, with countries like Brazil and Mexico experiencing slower growth compared to previous decades. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania will generally have low but positive RNI, with the United States and Australia relying more on migration for population growth. This global pattern underscores the widening demographic divide between rapidly growing regions in Africa and stagnating or shrinking populations in much of Europe and East Asia.

Data from US Census International Database