2038 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2038, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Worldwide, the RNI is expected to hover around 0.7% per year, down from over 1% in the early 2020s. Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa exhibiting rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will be lower, with South Asian countries like India and Pakistan experiencing moderate rates (around 1%), while East Asian nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea face near-zero or even negative RNI due to aging populations and low fertility. Europe will continue to experience negative or near-zero RNI in most countries, particularly in Eastern and Southern Europe, as deaths outpace births. Latin America’s RNI will be positive but declining, with countries like Brazil and Mexico showing rates below 1%. North America’s RNI will remain low, with the United States and Canada relying more on immigration for population growth. These contrasts highlight the demographic divide: high RNI in less developed regions, especially Africa, and stagnation or decline in more developed areas, underscoring varied population challenges and opportunities across continents and countries in 2038.

Data from US Census International Database