2037 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2037, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa remains the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries such as Niger and Nigeria maintaining rates above 2% per year, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI is negative or near zero in most countries, including Germany, Italy, and Russia, where aging populations and low birth rates persist. Asia shows wide variation: South Asian nations like Pakistan and India have moderate RNI, while East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China experience very low or negative rates due to sustained low fertility. Latin America’s RNI continues to decline but remains positive, with countries like Guatemala and Bolivia above the regional average, while Brazil and Argentina approach lower rates. North America’s RNI is modest, with the United States and Canada relying increasingly on immigration for population growth as natural increase slows. These contrasts underscore the demographic divide, with developing regions fueling global population growth and developed regions facing population stagnation or decline.

Data from US Census International Database