2036 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2036, the world's rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Globally, the RNI is projected to be around 0.7% per year, down from over 1% in the early 2020s. Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing rates above 2%, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue to fall, with South Asia and Southeast Asia seeing moderate rates (0.8–1.2%), while East Asia, led by China and Japan, will experience near-zero or even negative RNI due to aging populations and low fertility. Europe and North America will largely have negative or near-zero RNI, as deaths outpace births in many countries; for example, Germany and Italy will see continued natural decrease, while the United States may hover near zero due to slightly higher fertility and younger demographics. Latin America and the Caribbean will see a further slowdown, with most countries approaching replacement-level fertility and RNIs below 1%. These contrasts highlight the demographic divide: while some regions, especially in Africa, will see rapid natural population growth, many developed countries will face population stagnation or decline without immigration.

Data from US Census International Database