2034 Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its global decline by 2034, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Worldwide, the RNI is expected to hover around 0.7% per year, down from about 1% in the early 2020s. Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with many countries such as Niger, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo experiencing rates above 2.5%, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, with countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia facing natural population decreases due to low birth rates and aging populations. Asia’s RNI will be mixed: South and Southeast Asia (e.g., India, Pakistan, and the Philippines) will see moderate rates (around 1%), while East Asia (notably China, Japan, and South Korea) will have very low or negative rates. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline, with most countries seeing rates below 1%, while North America’s RNI will remain low, with the United States and Canada relying more on migration for population growth. These contrasts highlight the demographic divide between youthful, rapidly growing regions and aging, shrinking populations elsewhere.

Data from US Census International Database