2033 Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its global decline by 2033, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. By this year, the world’s average RNI is expected to fall below 0.8% annually, down from over 1% in the early 2020s. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries such as Niger and Nigeria maintaining rates above 2.5%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, with countries like Italy, Germany, and Russia experiencing more deaths than births, leading to natural population decline. Asia will show wide variation: South Asian countries like Pakistan and India will have moderate RNI (around 1%), while East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China will see negative or near-zero RNI due to aging populations and low fertility. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decrease, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching replacement-level or lower. North America’s RNI will remain modest, with the United States and Canada relying increasingly on migration for population growth. Thus, by 2033, the global pattern will be one of stark contrasts: high natural increase in parts of Africa and South Asia, stagnation or decline in Europe and East Asia, and moderate rates elsewhere, underscoring the diversity of demographic transitions worldwide.

Data from US Census International Database