2032 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2032, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with many sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria experiencing rates above 2% per year, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI is anticipated to decrease further, with countries like India and Indonesia seeing slowing growth, while East Asian nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea may experience negative RNIs due to aging populations and low birth rates. Europe will likely continue to have a negative or near-zero RNI, with countries like Germany and Italy facing population decline absent immigration. Latin America’s RNI will remain positive but modest, as fertility rates stabilize near replacement level. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania will see low but positive RNIs, with the United States and Australia relying more on immigration for population growth. This global pattern highlights a widening demographic divide: high RNIs persist in less developed regions, while many developed countries face stagnation or natural decrease, shaping future challenges in economic development, social policy, and migration.

Data from US Census International Database