2031 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2031, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between crude birth and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Worldwide, the RNI is expected to hover around 0.7% per year, down from higher rates in previous decades. Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with many countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa such as Niger and Nigeria, experiencing RNI rates above 2.5% due to high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia face aging populations and low birth rates, leading to natural decrease. Asia’s RNI will be mixed: South and Southeast Asian nations like India and the Philippines will still see moderate natural increase, while East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China are projected to have very low or negative RNI due to sustained low fertility. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline as fertility rates fall, with countries like Brazil and Mexico approaching replacement-level or below. This global pattern highlights stark contrasts: while some countries and regions grapple with population decline and aging, others, especially in Africa, will see continued population growth driven by high natural increase.

Data from US Census International Database