2030 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2030, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its slow decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions around the world. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, particularly in sub-Saharan countries like Niger and Nigeria, where high fertility rates and relatively young populations sustain rapid population growth. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as many countries such as Germany, Italy, and Russia experience more deaths than births due to aging populations and low fertility rates. Asia, home to both high-growth countries like Pakistan and the Philippines and low-growth or declining countries like Japan, China, and South Korea, will show significant regional variation. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline as fertility rates approach replacement level, with countries like Brazil and Mexico seeing slower growth. In North America, the United States and Canada will have low but positive RNIs, largely sustained by immigration rather than natural increase. Thus, by 2030, the world’s population growth will be increasingly concentrated in a handful of African and South Asian countries, while many developed and some emerging economies will face stagnation or natural decrease.

Data from US Census International Database