2029 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2029, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Worldwide, the RNI is expected to hover around 0.8% per year, down from higher rates in previous decades. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Niger and Nigeria, experiencing rates above 2.5% due to high fertility and relatively lower mortality. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, with countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia facing natural population decreases as deaths outpace births. Asia’s RNI will be mixed: South and Southeast Asian countries like India and the Philippines will maintain moderate positive rates, while East Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea, and China will see very low or negative RNIs due to aging populations and low fertility. Latin America’s RNI will continue to decline but remain positive, with countries like Brazil and Mexico experiencing slower natural growth than before. This global pattern highlights stark contrasts: while some nations face demographic pressures from rapid population growth, others grapple with aging and shrinking populations.

Data from US Census International Database