2028 Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its global decline by 2028, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. In 2028, the world’s RNI is expected to hover around 0.8% per year, down from previous decades. Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with many countries—such as Niger, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo—exceeding 2.5% annually, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI will remain negative or near zero, as countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia experience more deaths than births. Asia’s RNI varies: South and Southeast Asia (e.g., India, Pakistan, Indonesia) will still see moderate positive rates, while East Asia (notably China and Japan) faces near-zero or negative RNIs due to aging populations and low fertility. Latin America’s RNI continues to decline but remains positive, with countries like Guatemala and Bolivia above 1.5%, while Brazil and Argentina approach 0.5%. North America’s RNI is modest, with the United States near 0.3% and Canada even lower. This global contrast underscores the demographic divide: high-growth regions in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia versus aging, slow- or negative-growth populations in Europe and East Asia.

Data from US Census International Database