2027 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2027, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Niger and Nigeria, exhibiting RNIs above 2.5% per year due to high fertility rates and relatively young populations. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will be lower, with South and Southeast Asian countries like India and Indonesia still contributing to global population growth, but at diminishing rates as fertility declines. Latin America’s RNI will hover around 1% or less, reflecting its progression through demographic transition. Europe will likely experience a negative or near-zero RNI, with countries such as Germany, Italy, and Russia facing natural population decrease due to low birth rates and aging populations. North America and Oceania will have modest, positive RNIs, with the United States and Australia maintaining slightly positive rates, though much of their population growth will come from migration rather than natural increase. This global pattern underscores widening demographic contrasts: rapid growth in parts of Africa and South Asia, stagnation or decline in Europe and East Asia (notably Japan and China), and moderate changes elsewhere.

Data from US Census International Database