2026 Rate of Natural Increase

The rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to continue its global decline in 2026, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. In 2026, the world’s RNI is expected to hover around 0.8% per year, down from higher rates in previous decades. Africa will maintain the highest RNI, with many sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria experiencing rates above 2.5%, driven by high fertility and youthful populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI remains negative or near zero, as countries like Germany, Italy, and Russia face aging populations and low birth rates. Asia presents a mixed picture: South Asian nations like Pakistan and India will still have moderate RNI (around 1%), while East Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China see stagnant or negative growth due to low fertility. Latin America’s RNI continues to decline but remains positive, with countries like Guatemala above 1%, while Brazil and Argentina approach lower rates. North America’s RNI is modest, with the United States and Canada experiencing low but positive rates, largely sustained by immigration rather than natural increase. These contrasts highlight how demographic trends are shaped by fertility, mortality, and the stage of demographic transition in each region.

Data from US Census International Database