2025 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2025, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—is projected to be around 0.8% per year, reflecting a continued slowdown from previous decades. Africa remains the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, experiencing rates above 2.5% due to high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Asia's RNI is lower, averaging about 0.7%, with significant variation: South Asia maintains moderate growth, while East Asia, particularly China and Japan, faces near-zero or even negative RNI due to low birth rates and aging populations. Europe’s RNI is negative or close to zero in most countries, as deaths outnumber births, leading to natural population decline. Latin America and the Caribbean see moderate RNIs, around 0.8%, but these rates are steadily decreasing as fertility continues to fall. North America’s RNI is low, with the United States and Canada both experiencing rates below 0.4%. These contrasts highlight a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a few regions, while many countries, especially in Europe and East Asia, face the challenges of demographic aging and natural decrease.

Data from US Census International Database