2024 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2024, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates, not accounting for migration—continues its long-term decline, standing at approximately 0.8% per year. This overall figure masks significant regional variation. Africa remains the continent with the highest RNI, with sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria exhibiting rates above 2.5%, driven by high fertility and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI is negative or near zero in many countries, including Italy, Germany, and Russia, due to low birth rates and aging populations. Asia presents a mixed picture: South and Southeast Asian countries like India, Pakistan, and the Philippines still have positive RNIs (around 1% to 1.5%), while East Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea, and China are experiencing near-zero or negative RNIs. Latin America’s RNI is moderate, with countries like Brazil and Mexico showing rates between 0.5% and 1%. In summary, while some developing regions continue to see population growth fueled by high RNIs, many developed countries are facing stagnant or declining populations, highlighting a growing demographic divide.

Data from US Census International Database