2023 Rate of Natural Increase

In 2023, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates, excluding migration—continued its gradual decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Globally, the RNI hovered around 0.8% per year, down from over 2% in the 1960s. Africa remained the continent with the highest RNI, with many countries such as Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo exhibiting RNIs above 2.5%, driven by high fertility rates and relatively young populations. In contrast, Europe’s RNI was negative or near zero in most countries, including Germany, Italy, and Russia, due to low birth rates and aging populations. Asia showed considerable variation: South and Central Asian countries like India and Pakistan maintained moderate RNIs (around 1–1.5%), while East Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea, and China experienced near-zero or negative RNIs. Latin America’s RNI continued to decline but remained positive, with countries like Guatemala and Bolivia above 1.5%, while Brazil and Argentina were closer to 0.5%. North America’s RNI was modest, with the United States and Canada experiencing rates below 0.5%. These differences highlight the demographic divide between rapidly growing populations in parts of Africa and Asia and stagnating or shrinking populations in much of Europe and East Asia.

Data from US Census International Database