2100 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2100, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have fallen dramatically compared to the early 21st century, with the United Nations projecting a near-zero or even negative RNI for the world as a whole. Africa will remain the only continent with a significantly positive RNI, driven by persistently high birth rates in countries such as Niger, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, although even these rates will be declining. In contrast, Europe and East Asia (notably Japan, South Korea, and China) will experience negative RNIs, as deaths outpace births due to aging populations and low fertility rates. Latin America and South Asia will see their RNIs approach zero, with some countries like Brazil and India transitioning to natural decrease by century’s end. This stark contrast highlights a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a handful of African nations, while most other regions face population stagnation or decline, fundamentally reshaping global demographics.

Data from US Census International Database