2099 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2099, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has declined significantly compared to earlier centuries, reflecting the global trend toward lower fertility and aging populations. Africa remains the only continent with a positive and relatively high RNI, especially in sub-Saharan countries like Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where youthful populations and higher fertility continue to drive growth. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries such as Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, have negative RNIs, with deaths outnumbering births due to persistent low fertility and advanced aging. Latin America and South Asia have seen their RNIs drop to near zero or slightly positive, with countries like Brazil and India experiencing demographic stabilization. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania maintain modestly positive RNIs, bolstered by immigration as much as by natural increase. This global divergence underscores stark contrasts: while some African nations still grapple with rapid population growth, much of the developed world faces population decline and the challenges of supporting aging societies.

Data from US Census International Database