2098 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2098, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting the demographic transition experienced worldwide. Africa remains the only continent with a positive and relatively high RNI, particularly in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist despite gradual declines. In contrast, Asia’s RNI has dropped significantly, with countries such as Japan, South Korea, and China experiencing negative or near-zero rates due to sustained low fertility and aging populations. Europe’s RNI is negative across nearly all countries, with Eastern and Southern Europe facing pronounced population declines. The Americas present a mixed picture: Latin America’s RNI has slowed, approaching zero, while North America (the United States and Canada) sees slightly positive rates, largely bolstered by immigration rather than natural increase. Oceania’s RNI is modestly positive, driven by higher birth rates in Pacific Island nations, while Australia and New Zealand experience low or negative RNI. These trends highlight sharp contrasts: Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to grow rapidly, whereas countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan face shrinking populations, illustrating the widening demographic divergence between regions by 2098.

Data from US Census International Database