2097 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2097, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa remains the only continent with a positive and relatively high RNI, particularly in sub-Saharan countries such as Niger and Nigeria, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist despite gradual declines. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, China, and Japan, continue to experience negative RNI due to sustained low birth rates and aging populations, leading to natural population decreases. Latin America and South Asia, once characterized by rapid population growth, now exhibit low or near-zero RNI as fertility rates have fallen to or below replacement level, mirroring trends in North America and Oceania. While some countries, such as India and Indonesia, have stabilized with marginally positive RNI, others like Russia and South Korea face accelerating natural decline. These divergent trends highlight a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a handful of African nations, while most of the globe faces demographic stagnation or contraction.

Data from US Census International Database