2096 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2096, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed dramatically compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Most projections suggest that the world’s RNI will be near zero or possibly negative, as many regions experience aging populations and declining fertility rates. Africa is expected to remain the continent with the highest RNI, driven by relatively high fertility rates in countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, though even these rates will be lower than today. In contrast, Europe and East Asia—particularly countries like Japan, South Korea, and much of Eastern Europe—will likely have negative RNI, with deaths outnumbering births due to persistent low fertility and aging populations. Latin America and South Asia will see their RNI approach zero, with some countries like India and Brazil possibly experiencing negative growth by 2096. North America and Oceania may see slightly positive or stable RNI, thanks to immigration offsetting natural decrease. These contrasts highlight a world where population growth is increasingly uneven, with only a handful of countries contributing to global natural increase, while many others face population decline.

Data from US Census International Database