2095 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2095, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—will likely have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many sub-Saharan countries still experiencing youthful populations and higher fertility rates, though these rates will be lower than in previous decades. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Japan, South Korea, and China, are expected to see negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low birth rates and aging populations. Latin America and South Asia will likely have moderate RNI, with some countries nearing demographic stabilization. For example, Nigeria may still exhibit a positive RNI, though much reduced from 2020 levels, while Germany and Italy may continue to see population decline without significant immigration. This global pattern highlights a stark contrast: while some countries in Africa and parts of Asia may still grow naturally, many developed nations will rely on migration to offset natural decrease, leading to a more balanced or even shrinking world population by 2095.

Data from US Census International Database