2094 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2094, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting trends of aging populations and lower fertility rates. In most of Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, the RNI has turned negative, with deaths outpacing births due to sustained low fertility and high life expectancy, leading to shrinking populations without significant immigration. North America and Oceania maintain a near-zero or slightly positive RNI, as moderate fertility rates and immigration help stabilize population numbers. In contrast, regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, still exhibit positive RNI, though even here the rate has slowed considerably compared to the early 21st century, as access to education and healthcare has improved and fertility rates have gradually fallen. South Asia, including India and Bangladesh, has seen its RNI drop to very low levels, approaching zero, while Latin America’s RNI is also minimal, with most countries nearing demographic equilibrium. These contrasting trends highlight a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in a handful of African countries, while much of the rest of the globe faces population stagnation or decline.

Data from US Census International Database