2093 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2093, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa remains the only continent with a significant positive RNI, driven by persistently high fertility rates in regions such as West and Central Africa, though even here the RNI has slowed compared to previous decades. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, China, and Japan, have negative RNI, with deaths consistently outnumbering births due to aging populations and low fertility rates. South Asia, led by India, has seen its RNI approach zero, as fertility rates have fallen to near-replacement levels. Latin America and Southeast Asia exhibit low but still positive RNIs, with countries like Brazil and Indonesia experiencing slower population growth than in the past. Meanwhile, North America’s RNI hovers around zero, with the United States and Canada relying primarily on immigration for population growth. This global pattern highlights widening demographic contrasts: while some African nations still experience youthful, growing populations, many countries across Europe and Asia face population decline and rapid aging, reshaping economic and social landscapes worldwide.

Data from US Census International Database