2092 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2092, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century. Most projections suggest that the world’s RNI will hover near zero or even dip into negative territory, as many countries experience aging populations and declining fertility rates. In Africa, however, the RNI is expected to remain positive and comparatively high, with countries like Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia still experiencing substantial population growth due to higher fertility and a younger age structure. In contrast, Europe and East Asia—including countries such as Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea—will likely see negative RNIs, with deaths outnumbering births, leading to population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and Southeast Asia are projected to have low but positive RNIs, with countries like Brazil and Indonesia nearing replacement-level fertility. Meanwhile, North America’s RNI may be close to zero, with the United States and Canada relying on immigration to sustain population growth. This global contrast underscores a demographic divide: while parts of Africa continue to grow rapidly, much of the rest of the world faces stagnation or decline, reshaping economic and geopolitical dynamics.

Data from US Census International Database