2091 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2091, demographic projections suggest that the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century. Most continents, especially Europe and East Asia, are expected to experience near-zero or even negative RNIs, with aging populations and low fertility rates leading to natural population decrease in countries like Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea. In contrast, regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa will likely maintain a positive, though gradually declining, RNI due to higher fertility rates and improving, but still relatively high, mortality rates. South Asia may see its RNI approach zero as fertility rates fall closer to replacement level. Meanwhile, countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia will likely have low but still positive RNIs, reflecting their ongoing demographic transitions. The starkest contrast will persist between high-income nations with negative or stagnant RNIs and lower-income countries, particularly in Africa, where the RNI remains a key driver of population growth despite a global trend toward demographic stabilization.

Data from US Census International Database