2090 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2090, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Most projections suggest that the global RNI will approach zero or even become negative, as many countries experience aging populations and sustained low fertility rates. Africa is expected to remain the continent with the highest RNI, particularly in sub-Saharan regions, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist, although even here, rates are projected to decrease compared to previous decades. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, will continue to experience negative RNI, with deaths outnumbering births due to prolonged low fertility and advanced population aging. Latin America and Southeast Asia are likely to have low but still positive RNI, as fertility rates stabilize near or just below replacement level. Countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo may still exhibit relatively high RNI, while China, Russia, and much of Eastern Europe will likely see their populations shrink naturally. This global divergence underscores the varied pace of demographic transition, with some regions still growing naturally while others face population decline without immigration.

Data from US Census International Database