2089 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2089, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—has declined significantly compared to previous centuries, reflecting long-term demographic transitions. Globally, the RNI hovers near zero, with many regions experiencing either very slow growth or outright natural population decline. Africa remains the continent with the highest RNI, particularly in sub-Saharan regions, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist, although even here the RNI has dropped from earlier highs. Asia’s RNI is close to zero, with countries like India and Indonesia experiencing stabilization or slight declines, while East Asian nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea continue to see negative RNI due to aging populations and low fertility. Europe’s RNI is negative across almost all countries, with deaths outpacing births and natural decrease only partially offset by migration. The Americas present a mixed picture: Latin America’s RNI has fallen dramatically, with some countries like Brazil and Mexico nearing zero growth, while the United States and Canada experience slightly positive or near-zero RNI, largely due to immigration rather than natural increase. In contrast, many Middle Eastern and North African countries, once notable for high RNI, now see rates close to global averages due to falling fertility. This demographic convergence highlights the widespread impact of urbanization, education, and economic development on population growth patterns by 2089.

Data from US Census International Database