2088 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2088, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting the demographic transition experienced across most continents. Africa remains the only continent with a significant positive RNI, as many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa still have relatively high birth rates and declining, but not yet low, death rates. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, China, and Japan, have negative or near-zero RNIs, driven by persistently low fertility rates and aging populations. South Asia and parts of Latin America show moderate RNIs, with countries like India and Brazil experiencing slow population growth due to falling fertility rates approaching replacement level. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania maintain slightly positive RNIs, largely due to higher fertility rates among certain populations and improved healthcare, though immigration plays a larger role in population growth than natural increase. The stark contrast between Africa’s youthful, growing populations and the aging, shrinking populations of Europe and East Asia highlights the diverse demographic futures facing different regions and countries by 2088.

Data from US Census International Database