2087 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2087, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting trends of falling fertility and aging populations. Africa remains the only continent with a positive and relatively high RNI, particularly in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, where several countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo still see RNIs above 2%. In contrast, Asia’s RNI has dropped significantly, with populous countries like India and China experiencing near-zero or even negative rates due to sustained low fertility and increasing life expectancy. Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, have negative RNIs, resulting in shrinking populations unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean have transitioned to low or near-zero RNIs, while North America’s RNI is modestly positive, mainly due to higher fertility among immigrant populations. This divergence highlights a stark contrast: while many African nations continue to experience natural population growth, most of the world’s countries, especially in Europe and East Asia, face natural population decline, reshaping global demographic balances.

Data from US Census International Database