2086 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2086, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting demographic transitions across continents. Africa remains the only continent with a positive and significant RNI, particularly in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist, though at lower levels than in previous decades. In contrast, Asia’s RNI has approached zero or turned negative in many countries, with East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, and China experiencing population decline due to sustained low fertility and aging populations. Europe’s RNI has been negative for decades, with deaths outnumbering births in almost all countries, leading to shrinking populations unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean have seen their RNI fall close to zero, with fertility rates now at or below replacement level in most countries. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania maintain slightly positive RNI, though the United States, Canada, and Australia rely increasingly on immigration to sustain population growth as natural increase wanes. The contrast between high-RNI countries such as Nigeria or the Democratic Republic of Congo and low- or negative-RNI countries like Italy or Japan highlights the persistent demographic divide, with implications for economic growth, labor markets, and global migration patterns.

Data from US Census International Database