2085 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2085, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century, as population growth continues to decelerate worldwide. Most projections suggest that the global RNI will be close to zero or even negative, with population growth driven more by migration than by natural increase. Africa is expected to remain the only continent with a substantial positive RNI, with countries such as Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia still exhibiting higher birth rates relative to death rates, although these rates will be lower than in previous decades. In contrast, Europe and East Asia (including countries like Japan, South Korea, and China) will likely experience negative RNI, with deaths outnumbering births due to aging populations and persistently low fertility rates. Latin America and South Asia may see their RNI approach zero, as fertility declines and life expectancy rises. Within continents, there will be stark contrasts: for example, while Niger might maintain a modestly positive RNI, Italy and Germany could see their populations shrink considerably due to negative natural increase. Thus, by 2085, the world’s population dynamics will be marked by regional divergence, with Africa remaining the primary driver of natural population growth, while most other regions contend with stagnation or decline.

Data from US Census International Database