2084 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2084, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with many Sub-Saharan countries still experiencing youthful populations and higher fertility rates, although these rates will be declining compared to previous decades. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, China, and Japan, are expected to see negative or near-zero RNI due to persistent low birth rates and aging populations. South Asia, particularly India and Bangladesh, will have a moderate RNI, continuing a gradual decline as fertility rates fall and life expectancy rises. Latin America and the Caribbean will see their RNI approach zero, with countries like Brazil and Mexico experiencing slow population growth or even natural decrease. North America’s RNI will remain low, with the United States and Canada relying more on immigration than natural increase for population growth. This contrast highlights a world where population growth is increasingly concentrated in Africa, while most other regions face stagnation or decline in their natural increase rates.

Data from US Census International Database