2083 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2083, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—has continued its long-term decline, reflecting demographic transitions worldwide. Africa remains the only continent with a significant positive RNI, particularly in Sub-Saharan regions where youthful populations and higher fertility rates persist, though even here, rates are projected to be lower than in the early 21st century. Asia’s RNI has plateaued or turned negative in many countries, with East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, and China experiencing population decline due to sustained low fertility and aging populations. South Asia, including India and Bangladesh, maintains a slightly positive RNI, but at much lower rates than in previous decades. Europe’s RNI is negative across nearly all countries, with natural decrease offset only partially by immigration in some western nations. The Americas present a mixed picture: Latin America’s RNI has dropped to near zero, while North America hovers around replacement level, with the United States maintaining a small positive RNI due to higher fertility among immigrant populations. Oceania, led by Australia and New Zealand, sees minimal natural increase, with population growth driven primarily by migration. Overall, by 2083, the world’s population growth is concentrated in a few African nations, while most other regions face stagnation or decline, highlighting stark contrasts in demographic futures among countries and continents.

Data from US Census International Database