2082 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2082, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries, especially in sub-Saharan regions, still experiencing relatively high birth rates and youthful populations, although even here, fertility rates are projected to decline gradually. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue its downward trend, with countries like Japan, South Korea, and China already facing negative or near-zero natural increase due to aging populations and persistently low fertility rates. Europe’s RNI will remain negative or close to zero, with deaths outnumbering births in most countries, a trend mirrored in parts of Eastern Europe and Russia. The Americas will show regional variation: Latin American nations, such as Guatemala and Bolivia, may retain modestly positive RNIs, while North America, particularly Canada and the United States, will see RNI close to zero, relying more on immigration for population growth. Oceania will present a mixed picture, with Australia and New Zealand exhibiting low or negative RNI, while Pacific island nations maintain higher natural increase. Overall, the world’s population growth in 2082 will be driven primarily by Africa, with most other continents experiencing stagnation or natural decrease, highlighting stark contrasts in demographic futures.

Data from US Census International Database