2081 Rate of Natural Increase

By 2081, the world’s rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely display pronounced regional disparities, reflecting long-term demographic trends. Globally, the RNI is expected to continue its decline, as many countries experience aging populations and falling fertility rates. Africa will remain the continent with the highest RNI, driven by persistently high fertility rates in countries such as Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Niger, although even here, rates will be lower than in the early 21st century. In contrast, Europe and East Asia, including countries like Germany, Italy, Japan, and China, will likely see negative RNI, with deaths outnumbering births due to sustained low fertility and advanced population aging. South Asia and parts of the Middle East may maintain modestly positive RNI, but at much reduced levels compared to previous decades. Latin America’s RNI will also approach zero or become negative in many countries, mirroring trends in more developed regions. This divergence means that while Africa will contribute the most to global population growth, many countries elsewhere will face population decline, reshaping the world’s demographic landscape by 2081.

Data from US Census International Database