2080 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2080, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is expected to maintain the highest RNI, with many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa still experiencing youthful populations and higher fertility rates, though even here, the RNI will be lower than in previous decades due to gradual declines in fertility. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have continued its downward trend, with populous nations like China, Japan, and South Korea potentially experiencing negative RNI as deaths outnumber births, while South Asian countries such as India and Pakistan will see their rates approach replacement level or below. Europe and North America are projected to have negative or near-zero RNI, driven by aging populations and persistently low fertility rates, leading to natural population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America’s RNI will converge toward low levels similar to those in Europe, as fertility continues to fall. Within continents, there will be stark contrasts: for example, Nigeria in Africa may still have a positive RNI, while South Africa’s could be much lower; in Asia, Afghanistan might sustain a modestly positive RNI, while Japan’s remains deeply negative. This global shift toward lower or negative RNI will reshape population growth patterns, with only a handful of countries contributing to most of the world’s natural population increase by 2080.

Data from US Census International Database