2079 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2079, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will likely have slowed significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with sub-Saharan countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo continuing to experience positive, though gradually declining, natural growth due to relatively high fertility rates and a youthful population structure. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will have dropped sharply, with many countries like China, Japan, and South Korea exhibiting negative or near-zero rates as aging populations and low fertility persist. Europe is expected to remain in negative RNI territory, with countries such as Italy, Germany, and Russia facing population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will see their RNI approach zero, with some nations like Brazil and Argentina stabilizing at low growth or slight natural decrease. Meanwhile, North America and Oceania will experience modest positive RNI, primarily driven by higher fertility in the United States and Australia compared to other developed regions. Overall, the global RNI will be close to zero or even negative, marking a new demographic era where population growth is driven less by natural increase and more by migration, with stark contrasts between youthful, growing African nations and aging, shrinking populations in Europe and East Asia.

Data from US Census International Database