2078 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2078, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century. Most projections indicate that the world’s RNI will hover near zero or even become negative, as many regions experience aging populations and sustained low fertility rates. Africa is expected to remain the only continent with a substantial positive RNI, driven by youthful demographics and higher fertility rates, particularly in countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. In contrast, Asia’s RNI will continue to slow, with countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing negative rates due to prolonged low birth rates and increasing life expectancy, while South Asian nations like India and Pakistan may still see modest natural increases. Europe will maintain a negative RNI, with countries such as Germany, Italy, and Russia facing persistent population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will likely see their RNI approach zero, as fertility rates fall below replacement level, mirroring trends in North America where the United States and Canada will rely on immigration to sustain population growth. Thus, by 2078, stark contrasts will exist: rapid natural increase in parts of Africa, stability or decline in Asia and the Americas, and ongoing natural decrease in Europe, highlighting the demographic divergence across the globe.

Data from US Census International Database