2077 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2077, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth and death rates—will have continued its long-term decline, reflecting trends of aging populations and lower fertility rates. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI among continents, with many Sub-Saharan countries still experiencing relatively high birth rates and youthful populations, though even here, fertility is expected to gradually decrease. In contrast, Europe and East Asia will likely see negative RNIs, with deaths outnumbering births due to persistent low fertility and aging demographics; countries like Japan, Italy, and Germany may experience population shrinkage without significant immigration. South Asia and parts of the Middle East might retain a modestly positive RNI, but at much lower levels than in the early 21st century. Latin America’s RNI will likely stabilize near zero, as fertility rates approach replacement level. Comparatively, countries such as Nigeria or the Democratic Republic of Congo may still have RNIs above 1%, while China, Russia, and much of Eastern Europe could see rates well below zero, highlighting a growing demographic divergence between youthful and aging societies by 2077.

Data from US Census International Database