2076 Rate of Natural Increase

By the year 2076, the global rate of natural increase (RNI)—the difference between birth rates and death rates—will have declined significantly compared to the early 21st century, reflecting ongoing demographic transitions worldwide. Africa is projected to maintain the highest RNI, with sub-Saharan countries like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo still experiencing positive natural growth due to youthful populations and relatively high fertility rates, though these rates will be lower than in previous decades. In contrast, most regions in Asia, such as East Asia (including China, Japan, and South Korea), will likely experience negative RNI, as aging populations and low fertility persist. Europe will continue to see negative or near-zero RNI across nearly all countries, with nations like Italy, Germany, and Russia facing natural population decline unless offset by immigration. Latin America and the Caribbean will have low but still positive RNI in some areas, while others may approach zero growth. North America’s RNI will be close to zero or slightly negative, with the United States and Canada depending increasingly on immigration to sustain population growth. This global pattern highlights stark contrasts: while parts of Africa will still see natural population increases, much of the world will grapple with aging populations and natural decrease, underscoring the diverse demographic futures facing different continents and countries by 2076.

Data from US Census International Database